M&A activity snapshot
Packaging deal flow slowed and repriced in 2026. Capstone Partners counted 59 transactions announced or completed year to date, a 21.3% year-over-year drop, while the broader industrials sector rose. Capstone ties the slowdown to pressured consumer spending, private-label growth and GLP-1-driven changes in food consumption.
Global counts look steadier. PMCF tallied 159 packaging transactions in the first half of 2026, down 14 from the prior-year period but 5% above the trailing three-year first-half average. In June, Rigid Packaging, Flexible Plastic, and Paper collectively represented 67% of monthly volume.
The last two years also produced the sector's largest combinations. Amcor completed its all-stock combination with Berry Global in April 2025. International Paper completed its acquisition of DS Smith plc in January 2025. Smurfit Kappa and WestRock completed their combination on July 5, 2024.
Who is buying
Strategics dominate. Private, public, and hybrid (sponsor-owned) buyers comprised 83.1% of all packaging M&A activity year to date, according to Capstone. Even so, private strategic transactions totaled 26 deals, a 29.7% retreat, and PE platform deals ticked down to 10.
Large-cap private equity is active at the top end. Funds affiliated with CD&R completed their acquisition of Sealed Air in April 2026, after agreeing to an enterprise value of $10.3 billion. Novolex completed its combination with Pactiv Evergreen in April 2025, in a deal valued at approximately $6.7 billion including net debt.
In the middle market, Butterfly Equity acquired ePac Holdings from its investor consortium, including Amcor, in January 2026. Altamont Capital Partners invested in Key Container, a Northeast specialty corrugated maker. PMCF reports that numerous private equity-backed packaging platforms are actively seeking add-on acquisitions.
What buyers look for
Defensive end markets and embedded customers come first. Capstone points to high-margin dispensing and specialty closures and portfolios tilted toward healthcare, pet food and beauty as the models holding volume. Capstone adds that sustainability-themed offerings without cost parity or functional differentiation have struggled to match that performance.
Input-cost recovery is the second test. PMCF says owners should be able to show contractual mechanisms for monthly or quarterly price adjustments and a consistent history of recovering material costs across resin, paper, metal and glass.
Regulatory exposure is now standard diligence. California's SB 54 establishes a new extended producer responsibility (EPR) program to manage packaging and single-use plastic food service ware, and Circular Action Alliance has been approved to serve as the first Producer Responsibility Organization. Oregon's Recycling Modernization Act became effective Jan. 1, 2022, with recycling program changes starting in July 2025. Colorado's HB22-1355 requires producers to pay producer responsibility dues to the organization no later than January 1, 2026.
Food-contact and recycled-content rules shape plastics converters in particular. California requires plastic beverage containers to average 25% postconsumer recycled content from January 1, 2025 and 50% from January 1, 2030. For food packaging, FDA considers each proposed use of recycled plastic on a case-by-case basis, so a target's PCR suppliers and the FDA opinions behind their recycling processes matter.
What makes a strong company
Capstone's view is that scale and integration protect packaging margins through the cycle, via deep customer integration, long-term supply agreements, and broad service offerings. A smaller converter can still earn attention by owning a niche. The indicators buyers ask about:
- Contracted volume: share of revenue under multi-year supply agreements with indexed pricing.
- Material pass-through: resin, board or metal escalators and the lag before they reset.
- Line efficiency: OEE, changeover time and waste or spoilage rate by line.
- Customer mix: concentration by brand owner and exposure to non-discretionary categories.
- Compliance file: food-contact documentation, PCR sourcing, and an EPR fee exposure map by state.
Valuation and deal structure
Multiples compressed sharply. Capstone reports that the average EV/EBITDA multiple for packaging transactions has fallen to 6.5x YTD, marking a steep decline from 10.3x in full-year 2025, against a 2018-2026 average of 9.3x. Average deal size rose: enterprise value paid for packaging players has averaged $164.4 million in YTD 2026, up from $60.4 million a year earlier.
Large-deal pricing gives a reference point. Capstone lists International Paper's DS Smith purchase at $9.9 billion, 1.1x EV/Revenue, 7.2x EV/EBITDA. Capstone's averages draw on disclosed deals, which skew large; most lower-middle-market packaging transactions do not disclose a multiple.
On structure, PMCF notes a private equity platform transaction may provide liquidity while allowing owners or management to retain an equity interest. Owners selling to a sponsor should expect rollover equity to be part of the discussion.
Outlook
Capstone expects the 2026 valuation reset to favor strategic investments in niche markets and operational improvements over large-scale consolidations. Corrugated is cyclical but stabilizing, after a historic ~10% cut in industrywide production capacity from 2025 closures.
EPR fee schedules and recycled-content deadlines will keep moving through state rulemaking. Owners whose formats are recyclable, whose pricing passes through inputs, and whose customers sit in non-discretionary categories should hold up best as buyers regain confidence.
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