M&A activity snapshot
HVAC services is still one of the most active consolidation categories in home services, but the pace has leveled off. Capstone Partners counted 92 announced or completed HVAC services transactions in 2026 through July, down 4.2% year over year, after 149 transactions in 2025 through early December, up 12.9% year over year.
Under NAICS, residential and light-commercial HVAC installation and service sits in code 238220, Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors, a classification HVAC shares with plumbing. That is one reason the two trades are often bought by the same platforms.
Residential deals in 2026 include Blackstone's agreement to acquire Champions Group, a home services provider with over 1,800 field technicians and 150,000 active members, from Odyssey Investment Partners. PKF O'Dwyer's January-June 2026 deal list also shows Leap Service Partners (Concentric Equity) buying Air Hawk Heating & Cooling and AMX (WayPoint Capital) buying ABM Air Conditioning.
Who is buying
Sponsors and strategics split the market almost evenly. In 2026 through July, financial sponsors were behind 47 HVAC services deals, PE add-ons made up 41.3% of all deals, and strategics accounted for 48.9% with 45 transactions. Platform creations slowed from 10 to nine year over year, which Capstone suggests may reflect established buy-and-build programs discouraging new PE entrants.
PKF O'Dwyer describes private-equity-backed consolidators as the primary drivers of acquisition activity throughout the HVAC value chain. In its H1 2026 deal list, the most active named acquirers lean commercial: Partners Group's PremiStar (commercial mechanical) and Blackstone's AIR Control Concepts (an OEM manufacturers' rep platform). Residential owners should expect a different, smaller set of buyers: residential platforms adding a market, independent sponsors, and search funds buying a first single-market shop.
What buyers look for
Buyers underwrite the split between installation and recurring service revenue. PKF O'Dwyer notes that predictable preventative service work, especially if contractually locked in over multiple years, is seen more favorably than lumpy project work. The same report lists transaction structure, owner dependency, license-holder risk, and key-man risk as valuation factors. License-holder risk is specific to trades: if the owner holds the state contractor license, the buyer needs a plan to replace it.
Refrigerant exposure is now a standard diligence item. The AIM Act authorizes EPA to phase down HFC production and consumption, and EPA is stepping regulated HFCs down to 15% of their historic baseline by 2036. New residential and light-commercial AC and heat pump systems face a 700 GWP limit from January 1, 2025. Buyers ask about the installed-base refrigerant mix, technician readiness for newer refrigerants, and inventory.
What makes a strong company
A business that reaches the top of the HVAC multiple range typically shows:
- A majority of revenue from maintenance agreements and repair, not one-time installs tied to new construction or a single builder relationship.
- Technicians and a dispatcher who can run the business without the owner present for an extended stretch.
- Clean state contractor licensing, with the license held by someone other than the selling owner or a clear transfer plan.
- EPA Section 608 certification on file for every technician who handles refrigerant.
- A documented refrigerant and equipment inventory that shows manageable exposure to the HFC phasedown.
- No single commercial account, property manager, or builder representing an outsized share of revenue.
Valuation and deal structure
Multiples have come down from the peak but remain high for the category. Average HVAC services multiples settled at 2.0x EV/Revenue and 9.5x EV/EBITDA between 2024 and YTD 2026, down from 2.3x and 13.3x in 2021-2023.
PKF O'Dwyer's illustrative valuation framework runs from 5.0x-6.0x EBITDA for project-heavy businesses with limited market leadership and low customer retention to 10.0x+ for widely recognized brands with repeatable service revenue. The same report says larger companies generally trade higher and tracks services deals in EBITDA bands from under $3M to over $25M, without publishing a multiple per band. For the smallest deals, the closest public benchmark is all-industry: GF Data reported 5.5x average EBITDA for $1M-$5M transactions and 5.6x for $5M-$10M in H1 2025. That is a proxy, not an HVAC figure.
Seller rollover is common at platform scale. In the Champions Group deal, Odyssey and management retained a significant minority investment alongside Blackstone. No public source tracks earnout or rollover rates for HVAC specifically, so treat both as negotiated terms rather than market standards.
Outlook
Expect steady add-on volume through 2027 with more selective pricing. Capstone's data shows sponsor deal counts holding flat while platform creations slow and average multiples sit well below the 2021-2023 peak. PKF O'Dwyer expects the phase-out of older refrigerants to keep generating retrofit cycles, which supports service demand. The spread between service-heavy businesses and install-dependent shops is likely to persist, which makes documented recurring revenue and a clean license plan the main levers for owners weighing a sale in the next 12-24 months.
Own an HVAC business and want to know what it's worth before you talk to anyone? Run the valuation tool or read what buyers look for in detail. Part of Home Services M&A. See also: why vertical-specific buyers outperform generalists in outbound.