M&A activity snapshot
Security is one of the busiest consolidation categories in business services. Capstone Partners reports that sector M&A activity surged 24.1% year over year in 2025 to 242 deals, with PE add-ons accounting for 45.9% of dealmaking. Capstone's security sector is broad, covering fire and life safety, systems integration, and guarding, so read the total as a market signal rather than a guard-only count.
Guarding itself turned up in 2025. Uniformed guard deal volume jumped by nine deals (150% YOY), as recurring government contracts attracted acquirers. The market is concentrated at the top and fragmented below: Robert H. Perry & Associates estimates 8,000 U.S. contract security companies and a U.S. manned guarding market of around $30.9 bn.
Census data shows the same shape. In 2022, NAICS 561612 (security guards and patrol services) counted 7,707 firms with $37.3 billion in receipts; the 73 firms with receipts of $100 million or more accounted for $21.1 billion, by Axia's conversion of the table's receipts, which are reported in thousands of dollars.
Who is buying
Private strategic consolidators. Private strategics represented 34.3% of 2025 deal volume, with Allied Universal and MES Service Company completing multiple bolt-ons. Allied Universal completed seven transactions with aggregate annual revenues of approximately $695 million in 2025. Its backers are Warburg Pincus, Wendel and CDPQ; CDPQ's 2019 investment valued Allied Universal at more than US$7 billion.
PE-backed platforms. PE platform deals increased 33.3% to 20 in 2025. Perry estimates that PE-owned contract security companies now earn approximately $16.1 bn of U.S. revenue, over half of the total market. GardaWorld shows how large these platforms get: a group led by founder Stephan Crétier and HPS recapitalized it in a transaction valuing GardaWorld at C$13.5 billion.
Alarm and fire-safety roll-ups. These buyers want monitored, recurring revenue. Pye-Barker acquired a total of 41 companies in 2025; ADIA and GIC took minority stakes alongside Altas Partners and Leonard Green. In residential alarm, GTCR agreed to acquire SimpliSafe from Hellman & Friedman, its fifth investment in the security alarm industry.
What buyers look for
Contract retention. Guard contracts can be rebid, so buyers price how much of the book survives a change of ownership. Perry notes that attrition can be minimized, often to around 8%, if the company name and key personnel are retained for a transitional period.
Margin discipline. Guarding is a thin-margin, labor-heavy business. Perry puts average EBITDA at around 7%-8%, with smaller companies averaging about 17% gross margin. Bill rates that pass wage increases through to clients matter more than headline revenue growth.
Labor supply. The median annual wage for security guards was $38,020 in May 2025, and BLS projects about 157,200 openings each year, mostly to replace workers who leave. Recruiting and retention systems are part of what a buyer is paying for.
Recurring monthly revenue (alarm side). Buyers of monitoring companies track RMR and attrition. ADT, the largest monitored base, reported gross customer revenue attrition of 13.1% and RMR of $359 million at the end of 2025, a useful benchmark for a smaller book.
What makes a strong company
A guard or alarm company that draws strong bids typically has:
- Multi-year contracts with wage pass-through clauses and no client above a small share of revenue.
- Current state licensing for every officer and supervisor. In California, 32 hours of skills training must be completed within the first six months of registration; Texas DPS regulates armed and unarmed guards and alarm installers under Occupations Code Chapter 1702.
- A management bench that keeps clients through the transition, since retention after close drives the effective price a buyer pays.
- For alarm companies, documented RMR, attrition by cohort, and contract terms. ADT's dealer contracts, for reference, typically have an initial term of three years, with a charge-back period of generally thirteen months.
- Liability protection suited to the work. A DHS SAFETY Act Designation limits the seller's liability to the insurance amount DHS sets, which can matter for buyers of guard businesses serving critical sites.
Valuation and deal structure
Guarding. Perry reports that multiples for large companies commonly fall in the 9x to 12x EBITDA range; medium-sized companies typically command 6x to 7x; small companies commonly 4x to 5x. Perry is a guard-industry M&A advisor, so treat these as one firm's market estimates. Perry also notes that a 6x to 7x acquisition multiple can become an effective 9x to 10x after five years when the acquired book attrites.
Large deals anchor the top of the range. Perry records that Wendel bought AlliedBarton at a multiple of 11.6X EBITDA in 2015, and Allied Universal paid approximately 11X trailing EBITDA for G4S in 2021.
Alarm and integration. These trade on recurring revenue. Companies with less than $50,000 RMR averaged 36 times monthly revenue, and companies above $500,000 RMR averaged 46 times, per Barnes Associates data. At the large end, Securitas bought most of Stanley Black & Decker's security business for $3.2 billion in cash.
On structure, buyers protect themselves against attrition. Dealer-style account purchases use charge-back periods, and guard deals often hold the seller's name and team in place through a transition. Expect a portion of value to depend on retaining contracts after close.
Outlook
Expect deal volume to stay high through 2027. Guard demand is rising as law enforcement staffing difficulties and recurring government contracts drew acquirers back to the uniformed guard segment in 2025. PE buyers are moving down market, with some now considering companies with EBITDA as low as $2.5 million.
Technology is pulling guarding and monitoring together. GardaWorld agreed to acquire Stealth Monitoring, a video monitoring business with annual revenues of $130 million. Owners who combine guarding with remote video or monitored systems should expect interest from both guard consolidators and alarm buyers. Owners of guard-only businesses should expect wage pressure to stay the main diligence topic; average annual pay in the guard and patrol industry rose 3.6% in 2024.
Own a security business and want a data-backed view of value before you talk to anyone? Run the valuation tool or start at the Business & Facility Services overview. See also: why vertical-specific buyers outperform generalists in outbound.